NWS Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Area Forecast Discussions

Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

Forecast Discussion for STO NWS Office
FXUS66 KSTO 162158

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
258 PM PDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Temperatures warming back to near or slightly above average.
Slight chances for late-day mountain thunderstorms.


.DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)...

Upper level disturbance that brought below normal temperatures for
the past several days is moving eastward as a high pressure
gained strength in the eastern Pacific. Upper level height rises
translates to warming conditions with temperatures across the
region running up to 5 degrees warmer than yesterday afternoon.
Radar returns showed some rain showers and isolated thunderstorms
developing over the Sierra this afternoon.

Latest short term model guidance shows some rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms continuing to develop through this
afternoon and tapering off in the early evening. Some brief
downpours of rain and small hail can be expected. As ridge builds
to the east over the next several days, temperatures will continue
to rise between 5 and 10 degrees above normal through Saturday.
Afternoon isolated showers and thunderstorms for the mountains
will continue each day through Saturday.


.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday through Wednesday)

There`s a slight cooling trend for next week with a weak trough
over the region. For the eclipse, there could be some partly
cloudy conditions in the morning, mainly over the mountains and
foothills. The eclipse in Sacramento starts around 9:00 am, peaks
at 10:17 am, and ends at 11:39 am. Late in the afternoon, some
thunderstorms may form, mainly along the Sierra crest. Tuesday and
Wednesday look drier, with just a few isolated high mountain
afternoon thunderstorms possible. EK



VFR conditions through the TAF period. Gusts up to 30 kts through
the Delta. Isolated thunderstorms continue over the higher
mountains, diminishing after 00z and ending by around 05z.






NWS STO Office Area Forecast Discussion

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